What'll Ya Have? Part 2 of 5.

Continuing with my "end of the world" series, here comes Part 4!  This is a topic that was once a very real to everyone, and one that remains a very legitimate threat, even after the Cold War ended after the collapse of the Soviet Union. 

Number 4:  Nuclear Winter
Somewhere in the desert of the United States, a civilian rocket, carrying a satellite intended to provide consumers with GPS location for their cars and cellphones, blasts off into the night sky.  On the other side of the planet, powerful, yet very outdated Russian military radar systems dating from Soviet-era detect the launch of the rocket.  These systems, manned by inexperienced, poorly motivated and poorly paid Russian soldiers, commanded by officers still of the Cold War mindset, mistake the civilian launch for that of a first-strike launch of a nuclear-armed U.S. Military Minuteman III ballistic missile.

The commander of the radar systems make panicked calls to military leaders in Moscow, claiming that the United States has launched nuclear missiles against targets within Russian territory.  Upon hearing this, Russian commanders order an immediate retaliatory strike against American military and civilian targets, before fully investigating the claims of the commanders of the radar outposts.

Deep in the heart of Russia, mobile nuclear missile launch platforms, with their missiles always trained on a variety of targets within the United States, even two decades after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War, initiate firing commands and send their ballistic missiles skyward toward their intended destinations.  American radar systems, caught offguard, see this as a Russian first strike.  The President activates his "nuclear football" -- a briefcase that is handcuffed to a military advisor who is near the President 24/7 and contains all the codes and protocol necessary to affect a nuclear strike -- and orders an immediate launch of American missiles.

Throughout the United States, Minuteman silos open their doors and launch their missiles toward predetermined targets in Russia.  American ballistic missile submarines, called "Boomers," scattered about in oceans all across the globe also retaliate against the Russian launches.

Within the hour, the northern hemisphere of the globe is rendered uninhabitable by radiation and nuclear fallout that will last for hundreds of years.  Any living person or creature that wasn't killed by the hundreds of nuclear blasts all across their respective countries, will eventually succumb to a combination of starvation and radiation poisoning.  Industry and agriculture are wiped off the face of the planet, as are most major industrial cities, including Moscow, London, New York, Washington D.C., and even Atlanta.

 The Hydrogen Bomb

The chance for survival in the ensuing nuclear winter is slim but, if there were any advanced warning of the attacks, there are precious few individuals who would be prepared for a nuclear armageddon.  Those who had built bomb shelters underground, and who had prepared these shelters with air filtration systems to filter out the radioactive fallout, who had stocked their shelters with enough food and water for a very long "hibernation" period in their new concrete homes buried under scorched earth.  But the sad reality is that even they will eventually face the same fate as those who died earlier.  Stored food and water will eventually run out, and "the outside" will not be safe enough for any sort of habitation for many, many generations.  Once their supplies run out, they will be forced to leave their bunkers, and the radiation will soon claim them as vicitims.

This concept of immediate nuclear retaliation was called MAD, or "Mutually Assured Destruction."  It was the horror story that played through the minds of previous generations -- those who lived under the threat of nuclear annihilation during the Cold War.  But, don't think that just because the Soviet Union has collapsed, that the world is safe from such a fate.  Far from it.  Within the "new" Russia, parts of the Soviet mindset remain alive and well.  Large numbers of Commanders in the Russian military are the very same ones that taught Soviets to hate Americans.  And as for us here in the United States, our Minuteman missiles are right where they were 30 years ago...still holding patient vigil for a moment that we had better hope never comes.

-My 'guesstimated' chance of this scenario playing out: Slim, about 5%.  If this was the 1950s or 1960s, I'd say much higher.

-My 'guesstimated' population survival rate:  Slim to none.  Initially, about 2% to 3% for those who had enough warning AND had prepared accordingly.  However, this will drop to 0% once their supplies run out and they are forced to abandon their hiding spots.

Guesstimated population survival rate: 2% - 3% initially, dropping to 0% later.